The Balinese calendar stands at Saka 1450, not 2000, but the Balinese are excited about the new millennium as well. The Y2K concept is imported and is, we are told, a universal and inevitable effect of the shrinking globe. Once again Western values and concepts have influenced, surpassed or overcome tradition.

This is not meant as a judgment but rather a statement of fact - there are many good influences too. TodayÕs challenge, regardless of whether you are using a Balinese or European calendar, is the creation of a viable sustainable model which will support the tourist-based economy while coming to terms with the seemingly unquenchable thirst for unregulated growth, often at the expense of much of what we hold near and dear. The discussion here is to what extent this is possible.

In an article last year entitled ÒCurse or BlessingÓ, I attempted to point out a number of beneficial side effects resulting from the economic downturn that followed President SuhartoÕs resignation. I noted that several ambitious but dubious mega-projects had ground to a halt. My hope was that a slow down in haphazard and unbridled growth would result in the realisation that too many uncontrolled changes were taking place too quickly. The lack of adequate planning or consideration of long-term effects was resulting in havoc traffic jams, pollution time bombs, social injustices and crime. While most of the large projects still remain in the doldrums, I had not foreseen certain developments that have resulted in an even quicker pace of grows.

When the blanket travel advisory warnings against travel in Indonesia were amended in July 1998, once again declaring Bali to be a safe travel destination, tourism and growth experienced an immediate resurgence. Perhaps the single biggest motor for spiraling land prices and an explosion in building was a mass migration of the capital rich Indonesian Chinese from other areas. After experiencing the riots and destruction of their neighborhoods in Jakarta, Surabaya, Solo and Medan, they perceived Bali as the one safe place in Indonesia. Various sources have quoted estimates of as many as 200,000 immigrants.

While it is difficult to ascertain the accuracy of these figures, the sudden upturn in the purchase of land and an explosion in the construction of ruko - the obsequious shop-house of the Chinese - make the exact numbers irrelevant. The landscape of south Bali has suffered an irreversible urbanisation that has lined its thoroughfares with shop-houses. Most are shoddy and almost all are ugly. Much of south Bali now resembles the streets of Jakarta rather than the paradise advertised in the resort folders. Construction has not been limited to shop houses alone. While numerous warehouses and factories in Java have been shut down or stand empty, Bali is slowly seeing itself transformed into a major manufacturing zone.

A second remarkable phenomena is the large number of foreigners who seem to have been possessed by the notion that it is now their last chance to buy a piece of paradise. Despite the fact that they cannot own land, and that there are dubious arrangements made to get around the restrictions of Indonesian law forbidding non-Indonesian citizens from owning land, innocent victims are lining up in droves. Naturally not all of these purchase arrangements result in fraud and loss, but be forewarned before you rush out to join the crowds - a significant number do.

The Internet has played a prominent role in this. There are now numerous Web Sites offering the residents of Podunk, Illinois the chance to buy their own Bali dream vacation home for only a fraction of the price of a condominium in Hawaii. This market, too, has spawned the construction of countless new vacation home developments. The vicinity of Canggu Beach, for example, has lost its rustic charm and is now a real estate brokerÕs paradise with hundreds of signs offering houses for sale, lease or rent.